RESUMO
To develop diabetes risk score (RS) based on the current definition of diabetes, we retrospectively analyzed consecutive 4,159 health examinees who were non-diabetic at baseline. Diabetes, diagnosed by fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L, 2hPG ≥11.1 mmol/L and/or HbA1c ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol), developed in 279 of them during the mean period of 4.9 years. A full RS (RSFull), a RS without 2hPG (RS-2hPG) and a non-invasive RS (RSNI) were created on the basis of multivariate Cox proportional model by weighted grading based on hazard ratio in half the persons assigned. The RSs were verified in the remaining half of the participants. Positive family history (FH), male sex, smoking and higher age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), FPG, 2hPG and HbA1c were independent predictors for RSFull. For RS-2hPG, 7 independent predictors, exclusive of 2hPG and smoking but inclusive of elevated triglycerides (TG) comparing to RSFull, were selected. FH, male sex, and higher age, SBP and HbA1c were independent predictors in RSNI. In the validation cohort, C-statistic (95%CI) of RSFull, RS-2hPG and RSNI were 0.80 (0.76-0.84), 0.75 (0.70-0.78) and 0.68 (0.63-0.72), respectively, which were significantly different from each other (P <0.01). Absolute percentage difference between predicted probability and observed diabetes were 1.9%, 0.7% and 0.9%, by the three scores, respectively, and not significantly different from each other. In conclusion, diabetes defined by the current criteria was predicted by the new diabetes risk scores with reasonable accuracy. Nonetheless, RSFull with a postchallenge glucose value performed superior to RS-2hPG and RSNI.